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The DII Report™️: 10 top 25 upsets shakes up the Week 4 DII football bracket projections and Power 10

TEN!!!! Nearly half the D2 Football top 25 lost this weekend. What does that mean for projections?

What. A. Weekend. TEN (10!!!!) teams that were sitting in the D2 Football top 25 lost this weekend, several in tremendously exciting upset fashion. Mars Hill has officially arrived, with top 25 upsets in consecutive weeks. Benedict was stunned by Tuskegee, so does that mean a new No. 1 in Super Region Two? Harding nearly lost to Ouachita Baptist (how many of you said it correctly in your mind as you read it?) to survive and remain undefeated, but top 10 Findlay and Northwest Missouri State were not so lucky.

That means there was a shakeup in the DII football Power 10 and my top 25 voting for the D2 Football national poll. The Bearcats, who lost to their old friend Adam Dorrel and Central Oklahoma, cling to the final spot in the Power 10, while Findlay falls out after a loss to Northwood. Northeastern State lost to an FCS team for the second week in a row, and while that doesn’t hurt the RiverHawks DII record, it does bump them from the top 10. That opened the door for two new teams this week.

The rest of my top 25 votes for the D2 Football national poll are, well, a complete mess. The next five look like Emporia State, Indiana (PA), Northwood, Valdosta State, and North Greenville, in some order. Nos. 16-20 are Davenport, Northeastern State, Findlay, Mars Hill, and Wayne State (NE). Rounding out the top 25 is Kentucky State, Benedict, Henderson State, Carson-Newman, and Virginia Union.

Your weekly reminder:

  • The DII football bracket is 32 teams, eight teams per super region.
  • Each conference’s champion, minus the Gulf South, gets an automatic bid to the tournament. The Gulf South has only three teams; thus, no AQ is allowed, and that means Super Region Two will have more at-large bids (five) than AQs (three). The rest of the super regions have an even split.
  • This season, DII selection committees are using NPI. It has been used in DIII, and everyone tells me that DIII “gets it right” (I can’t wait until some of those people’s teams are snubbed with DII’s NPI and then what the excuses become!). In short, it makes the bracket a math equation: the NPI is formula-driven, giving more weight to road wins and quality opponents than the old way of filling the bracket, which, admittedly, left too many holes for mistakes. Friend of The DII Report Cory Hogue does a nice breakdown here (and by the way, why are you not subscribed to Cory Hogue Sports yet?).
  • REMEMBER (before you email me complaining), these projections are NOT what the bracket would look like RIGHT NOW if the season ended today. Inkblot Sports has always done a great job. However, a few teams have played a few nice road games, inflating their NPI. That won’t last when they get into the heart of conference play and start playing top-25 teams.

Become a paid subscriber to see this week’s DII football championship projections. Youwill get a new projection every week for the rest of the season.

2026 DII football bracket projection No. 2 (9/26/26)

Super Region Four

In the conversation: Central Missouri, Central Oklahoma, East Central, UT Permian Basin, Washburn, Western Oregon

What changed: There are A LOT of good teams here, so I expect more changes as the season progresses. The big change from last week was that Central Oklahoma upset the Bearcats, bumping them to No. 5 from No. 2 and getting the Bronchos in the conversation (with a tremendous amount of work to be done, mind you). Western Oregon was stunned by Angelo State, and that really hurts the Wolves’ chances in a tightly contested super region. UTPB has been playing surprisingly well considering the massive transition in roster turnover and coaching staff, making, to me, a two-horse race in the Lone Star. Right now, Central Washington has the edge.

Super Region One

In the conversation: Bentley, Franklin Pierce, Shepherd

What changed: The top five remain the same, as all four won this week, minus Johnson C. Smith, which was idle. The No. 6 spot was tricky. Right now, I think it may be Virginia State over Shepherd, but it could change. Virginia State is perfect against DII teams, and they aren’t simply winning football games, but dominating them with a scoring margin of 25.0 points per win. Shepherd hung with Kutztown, but there is more ahead that could give the Rams trouble. I’m sticking with West Liberty in the MEC as the Hilltoppers keep finding ways to win. As far as the NE10, good luck. Franklin Pierce had a big win against Bentley, last week’s projected automatic bid, but Southern Connecticut looks sharp. We need more information when these teams play each other, but let’s get a little crazy for now.

Super Region Two

In the conversation: Anderson (SC), Newberry, UNC Pembroke

What changed: Much like last week, this super region is a mess. Benedict lost to Tuskegee, which now gets the Golden Tigers in the conversation. However, North Greenville has a path to No. 1, but it starts this weekend against UNC Pembroke, a team that edges out Anderson (SC) right now for the No. 9 spot with ranked wins against Wingate and Valdosta State. Mars Hill has officially arrived, knocking off Lenoir-Rhyne last weekend and then Carson-Newman this week, and the Lions have an edge for what appears to be a wide-open SAC. I do think three SIAC teams make it, so Tuskegee is now in the mix with that stunning upset.

Super Region Three

In the conversation: Michigan Tech, Wayne State (Neb), Walsh

What changed: Northwood’s win over Findlay gave the Wolves the edge to the automatic bid in the G-MAC. Yes, Walsh is undefeated and currently atop the Super Region Three NPI; however, let’s see how the Cavaliers do against Findlay and Northwood in a few weeks. I understand there is a lot of national love (especially from FloSports) for Michigan Tech, but for me, here’s what separates Michigan Tech and Davenport: Neither have played Ferris State or GVSU… and I don’t think either can beat those two. That means it comes down to the Nov. 7 matchup between Davenport and Michigan Tech. I think the way Cephus Harris controls the clock in the run game gives the Panthers the win on the road, nonetheless boosting their NPI ahead of the Huskies. No one seems to want the GLVC, so let’s stick with William Jewell, which is playing with a purpose larger than football.

 

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